I've been watching the bidding pretty closely for the last few weeks, thereby taking America's pulse (as well as you can do that in Greenwich Village). Tonight was the first sudden shift in sentiment I've seen -- a 55% drop from this afternoon (from 28 to 12). This reflects the reality that the NC wipeout plus the squeaker in Indiana will finally convince the super-d's that they have no remaining basis for denying Obama. From now on it's about ego and face, not about possibility.
And know when to fold em.
Update: On Wednesday morning, Clinton is trading at about 10. The underlying math is provided by CNN's handy delegate counter. By my calculation, if Clinton takes 55% of WV, KY and PR, and Obama takes 55% of Mt, OR and SD, all estimates that seem to me favorable to Clinton, Obama needs only 30% of the still uncommitted super-d's to clinch the nomination. Only a major Obama skeleton or gaffe can produce that result. Do Clinton and the uncommitted super-d's know something we don't? Otherwise I'm not sure I follow their calculation.
I have been following the bidding, too. I agree that Hillary's remaining price support (as opposed to political support) at this time comes from about a 10 percent chance that Obama's mistress will be outed by June (for example).
On the Republican's side, the fact that McCain only has about a 94% chance of getting the nomination is largely an actuarial call rather than a political one.
Posted by: M. Hodak | May 07, 2008 at 09:48 AM