As previously noted, I presented Death of Big Law at Georgetown last Monday. Here is the schedule and some of the papers and presentations, including my presentation.
There were also some journalists present, and I'll let them summarize my own take. Aric Press (American Lawyer), said the question at the conference was whether "Mega Law [is] a Dead Man Walking?"
For Larry Ribstein, a University of Illinois law school professor, the answer was clear. "My hypothesis is that for the big law firm we'll see a downhill slide that the horse drawn carriage experienced," he said at the start of his presentation. Later, he turned really pessimistic, asking, "what can firms do? Nothing. They're dead...what sustains them is regulation" that thwarts the entry of natural competitors into the market.
In his view, the law firm business model, however it's defined, is inherently fragile and crumbling under client and labor market pressures. He said that until recently he had some hope for the future of large law firms, largely because of what he called "their reputational capital." But he'd backed away from that view because clients can now essentially build their own sets of outside providers and law firms have been busy shedding the very traits that had built their reputational capital. The death of lockstep compensation, the rise in lateral partners, the end of vicarious liability among partners, and the sharp cuts in associate recruiting and training have all conspired to devalue the firm's unity and reputational capital.
From Legal Times:
The most dire prediction unsurprisingly came from Larry Ribstein, associate dean for research at the University of Illinois Law School and author of "The Death of Big Law," when he posited the most dire assessment of the future of large law firms. Ribstein said that if the economic crisis showed anything, it was that the large law firm business model is unworkable.
"The business model is inherently fragile and is crumbling under pressure. Unlike 20 years ago when I first started thinking about this, I no longer think that the tweaks we have been seeing are going to save anything," Ribstein said.
Ribstein said that large law firms trade on what he called "reputational capital." That reputational capital, Ribstein said, was damaged during the economic downturn by the defensive strategies implemented by Big Law firms, including associate and staff layoffs.
Ribstein predicted that law firms, especially those that are based in the U.S., will devolve by hiring far fewer associates and pressing to change ethical rules that bar investment in law firms by outside financiers. That approach will soon go into effect in the United Kingdom under the Legal Services Act, which allows for non-lawyer investors, such as private equity firms, to invest in law firms.
Law firm managers such as Robert Ruyak of Howrey, William Perlstein of WilmerHale, Bruce McLean of Akin Gump, admitted the need for significant change in the model. That attitude was clearly driven by clients, as indicated by the in-house lawyers at the conference.
The general refrain, though, uttered as a mantra throughout the conference, is that Big Law is not dead. The speakers generally took comfort from the need for the kinds of services Big Law provides.
The problem for Big Law, as my paper discusses, is that it faces a number of threats to its basic structure and business model. To begin with, the Big Law model is based significantly on services that a legion of other providers already can provide better and more cheaply. One of the most important threads at the conference and threats to Big Law is the array of make-or-buy choices that law firms and clients confront from legal outsourcing and other alternatives. Interesting work on these decisions was presented by Mark Chandler of Cisco, Jeff Carr of FMC Technologies and Mari Sako of Oxford, and in a paper by Mitt Regan and Palmer Heenan. More generally, Stephen Mayson of the College of Law, London noted that Big Law's survival depended on its ability in the new era of figuring out where it can add value in managing a multiplicity of resources – not just lawyers.
The Big Law model is also threatened by the coming of outside financing. At the conference the focus was on outside funding of litigation. Anthony Sebok presented the current regulatory structure, while Timothy Scrantom of Juridica Capital Management provided a glimpse of the market reality – the large and growing demand and market for law market capital.
Another angle on the future of outside financed law firms is to look at the other professional service industries that, like Big Law, are based on client relationships and mobile people but have successfully turned to outside capital, resulting in significant consolidation. Andrew Von Nordenflycht of Simon Fraser presented a paper on the evolution of global advertising. It seems that ad agencies were able to do this via financial intermediation through holding companies. This enabled firms to deal with conflicts, grow, diversify, attract more capital, provide liquidity for owners and achieve some economies of scale. One wonders if this or some other organizational innovation could accomplish similar results for legal services in the post-regulatory world.
What does all this say about the future of legal education? Tom Morgan (whose new book about all of the above developments, The Vanishing American Lawyer, is must reading) suggests that legal education needs to move toward a variety of models to fit the multiplicity of roles future law graduates will play. The ABA is seeking to impose constraints, but these constraints are simply feeding the "chaos" by moving in opposite directions – trying to implement the MacCrate ideal of training law students to be sole practitioners, while also recognizing that law schools can adopt a variety of models, each with its own, probably unworkable, metrics. Morgan said this creates an opportunity for risk-taking entrepreneurial deans.
The current Big Law model is preserved by a rapidly weakening regulatory shield that cannot survive in the long term in a global economy. The race may go to the countries like the UK and Australia whose regulators seem so far to have been much more nimble and responsive than those in the U.S. Anthony Davis suggested that the explanation for this regulatory responsiveness in the UK is the existence of a single regulator instead of the cumbersome U.S. system which requires coordinating 51 regulators. My paper proposes an alternative for the U.S.: a choice of law rule that enables law firms to choose who regulates their internal governance, similar to the system for other U.S. firms.
What happens if U.S. law firms don't respond to these pressures? Well, Peter Sherer had one of the more interesting presentations, which looked at the rankings of top law firms from 1920 to 1940, using data from Martindale-Hubbell and firm histories. How many firms do you recognize from 1920 (slide 11)? The list in slide 15 from 1940 is a bit more recognizable. Slide 18 suggests that firm "competencies" changed (specifically, from boom advising to bust advising) for firms that had a "critical mass of flexible young partners" who were willing and able to innovate. In other words, the firms that ended up dominating in the late 20th century were made during this critical period of financial turmoil, when firms had to innovate or die.
In the end, in global markets, survival, or not, will be the driver of change.
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